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Stock Ideas Investors Daily Edge Market Forecasts - Who Needs 'Em?
Stock Ideas Investors Daily Edge Market Forecasts - Who Needs 'Em? 
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| Market Forecasts - Who Needs 'Em? |
| Thursday, 03 January 2008 | ||||||||
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I never could understand market forecasts at the outset of a new year. Especially when they are for the entire upcoming year. Other than filling up some space, and maybe creating some free "special reports" to sell stuff, I don't have any use for them. Why the grinch-like attitude? Because outlooks change every month, every week, every day. So what good are they for an entire year? About the best you can do is paint some broad strokes, which really isn't terribly useful for those of us who want to make money. You want broad strokes? Buy a broad-based U.S. stock fund, throw in some bonds, international stocks, and gold. You want to take advantage of hot and cold sectors? Forget the yearly outlooks, because they won't be worth diddly in a couple of weeks or maybe a month at the most. The market changes too rapidly for a long-term specific outlook to have any value. Those who say that this is the year of the financials make me laugh. Will the financials come back? Sure they will, at some point. But for those who believe that financials will have a solid 2008, do you honestly believe that now is the best time to enter the sector? Same for housing. Is now the time to jump in? I think not. I also love the forecasts that predict where the major indices will finish the year. I know a guy who came within three points of hitting a Dow Jones forecast on the nose one year. Pure luck. But boy, did he make a big deal out of that. Of course, he didn't make such a big deal when he missed badly the next year. That's how the game is played. But you know that ... don't you? So take these yearly forecasts for what they are. Pretty reports with lots of hype that really don't mean much. Let's face it. Trying to determine where a stock or sector will head over the next week is tough enough. The next year? Don't bother P.S. To let me know what you thought of today's article, send an e-mail to: \n This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
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