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Very Important Reports, and Earnings Hits Full Swing

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By Roger S. Conrad I’ve never been impressed by hype surrounding supposedly “disruptive” new technologies—developments billed to change the balance of power in an industry. And my skepticism meter goes positively off the chart when the claims pertain to communications and other utility-like industries.
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Very Important Reports, and Earnings Hits Full Swing

Monday, 28 July 2008

By Christian Hill
The economic calendar gets going tomorrow with the release of the July Consumer Confidence numbers. In what should come as little surprise, the market expects a decline from last month. What should be noted however is that the rate of decline is slowing dramatically.
In January, the index was at 87.9, and last months’ reading was 50.4. That is a 42% decline in 6 months. This month the market expects a reading of 50.0, so an ever so slight decline from last month. Such a small decline could indicate an economic bottom.

On Thursday, the advanced GDP report for the second quarter is released, and the market is expecting a huge jump versus last quarter. Q1 had a final growth reading of one percent, and the advanced Q2 number is expected to nearly double that at 1.80 percent. Since consumption makes up roughly two-thirds of the final number, one has to wonder if this number is significantly better than last quarter simply due to stimulus checks versus real growth.

If it is simply due to spending stimulus checks, the “growth” will be short-lived and next quarter could post a large decline.

The latest job data comes out on Friday and the news just keeps getting worse. The economy is expected to shed another 68,000 jobs this month, marking the seventh straight month of job losses. At this rate, the job losses for the year will reach 500,000 some time in August. These job losses are likely to push the unemployment rate up another tenth of a percent, to 5.60 percent. This would be the highest unemployment rate in four years.

The report that caught my eye this week is the ISM Index report for July. This report is a survey of purchasing managers, and a reading above 50 is considered expansion. Last month the reading was “flat” at 50.2, meaning no real contraction or expansion.
The reading for July is expected to be 50.5. This could point to a slight expansion and this could go hand in hand with the GDP report in signaling a bottom in the economic slowdown.

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Earnings Calendar:
Mon: AMGN, KFT,
Tues: CL
Wed: ODP, SBUX, DIS
Thur: MO, CVS, MOT,
Fri: JAVA

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