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FOMC Minutes and GDP Highlight The Calendar |
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Monday, 25 August 2008 |
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By Christian Hill
This week’s economic calendar hits the ground running at 10 AM this morning and doesn’t slow down until Friday morning. This week is loaded with very important reports and depending on the outcomes, we could see a big swing in the market.
This morning the Existing Home Sales figure for July is released, and surprisingly the market expects a slight boost versus June. The June figures came in lower than estimates by approximately 100k units, so seeing the market expect this month to be better by approximately 100k units is odd. The credit markets aren’t getting any better, and no region that I am aware of is experiencing anything approaching a housing turnaround. With that being said, the New Home Sales figure for July is released on Tuesday morning and is expected to show a decrease of approximately 7k units sold versus June.
Tuesday morning also sees the announcement of the August Consumer Confidence numbers. The market expects an increase, which if it holds true, could be good news for the market. Before spending increases, consumers need to feel that things are at least beginning to turn around. It will be interesting to see if Consumer Confidence increased in August, when Personal Income in July is expected to show a decrease of 0.30 percent when the report is released on Thursday.
Two reports that will be closely monitored this week will be the FOMC Minutes that are released on Tuesday and the Preliminary GDP report for Q2. The FOMC Minutes will be studied for any hints that the Fed sees the market improving or getting worse. The Preliminary GDP for the second quarter is expected to show higher GDP growth than the previously released advanced estimate, which given the current economy, would be quite surprising.
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