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The FOMC Minutes Will Get The Most Attention,
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Monday, 06 October 2008

Earnings Are Upon Us Again
By Christian Hill ----------The economic calendar this week isn’t particularly exciting, but coming off the pain inflicted on the markets last week, that could be a good thing. The market will have its hands full with earnings season starting up again, so a full week of reports could have been dangerous.

The FOMC Minutes from the September 16 meeting come out tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 P.M. and will provide an interesting read. Going into the weekend before the meeting, the odds that the Fed would cut rates stood at ten percent. By that Monday the chances the Fed would cut rates jumped to 90 percent. The next day, the Fed didn’t cut rates, and the market reeled. Many on Wall Street will be reading the minutes to try to determine why the Fed left rates untouched. In an interesting side note, the probabilities for the October Meeting are all over the board. Currently the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged stands at 20 percent, a one-quarter percent cut stands at 20 percent, a half-percent cut stands at 30 percent, and a full one percent cut stands at 30 percent. Or, another way of looking at it, there is an 80 percent chance of a rate cut of some sort.

On Tuesday, the Consumer Credit report for August is released, and the number is expected to grow significantly versus July. An increase of almost $1 billion is what the market expects. How the amount of credit extended to American consumers has grown in the face of the current credit fiasco is unknown, but it could also mean that Americans are more desperate than ever to pay bills and are maxing out their credit cards.

The Trade Balance report comes out on Friday, and the market expects a drop in the trade balance of almost $2 billion. This is most likely due to the strengthening dollar over the last five to six weeks. A smaller part could be due to a decrease in demand due to slowing consumer spending.

Earnings Reports:
Tues: AA, YUM
Wed: COST, MON
Thurs: CVX
Fri: GE
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