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Housing Back In The News,GDP Could Be Historically Bad
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Monday, 23 March 2009
By Christian Hill
After last weeks surprising housing numbers (building permits and housing starts actually increased) the housing reports this week are now even more unpredictable. Existing home sales are expected to drop by approximately 40k units, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this number actually beats expectations to the positive side and shows a gain.
The reason is that foreclosures continue to create tremendous buying opportunities, and at some point, prices get low enough to spur sales.

The New Home Sales report that comes out Wednesday is also expected to show a decline, but I think this one will be a much larger than the 9k units that’s anticipated. With so much cheap existing inventory available, builders moving new inventory face many obstacles.

It should come as no surprise that the Durable Goods Orders report on Tuesday is expected to show a further decline. With the economy going nowhere fast, purchases of big ticket items has dried up. On a contrary note however, Personal Spending is expected to show an increase this month. So it looks like consumers are spending money, just not on durable goods.

The Fourth quarter GDP figure comes out this week, and the final numbers are expected to show a slightly larger decline than previously thought. The final tally is expected to show a decline of 6.6%. If this figure holds, it will be the largest quarterly decline in GDP since the second quarter of 1980.

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