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The unwinding of the “carry trade” is doing Japan no favors.  As investors buy yen to close out their Japanese loans, their currency is strengthening against other currencies such as the dollar and euro.
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How High Can Commodities Climb?
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Tuesday, 02 October 2007
By Andrew Gordon
Since the Fed dropped its discount rate last month, the S&P 500 has risen more than five percent.  But commodities have more than doubled that rate. 
And they’ve gone up across the board, including oil and gas, which make up 39 percent of the CRB Index’s weighting.  Grain, industrial, and precious metals have also climbed.

Now it looks like commodities are due for a breather.  The RSI shows that they’re clearly overbought.  But they could go a little further before hitting their channel resistance at around 340.  If the index gets past that, you can expect another strong run up the charts.
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If you’ve bet on the price of commodities going up, then good for you.  But it hasn’t been so good for the price of long-term Treasurys, which are sensitive to inflation prospects.
Source : Investors Daily Edge
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